CPTC2

Snr-Gen Than Shwe salutes the troops in Naypyidaw on

Armed Forces Day [Photo: AFP]

Burma Under Siege

By Min Zin January 26, 2008
After the September uprising, the Burmese junta regained control over opposition groups and activists, but whether it achieved a stronger strategic position remains doubtful.
A series of bomb blasts in the past two weeks demonstrates one of two things: the security issue is still potentially troublesome for the military or, if opposition charges are true, the junta itself was the source of the bomb blasts, which can be used to blame powerful, disruptive organizations.
There were four explosions within one week, killing at least three civilians and injuring five others. The first blast occurred on January 11 at the railway station serving the country's capital, Naypyidaw. It was the first incident of a bombing in the new capital.
As the bombs were going off, the regime and ethnic, armed opposition groups traded allegations.
The junta accused the Karen National Union (KNU) and an unspecified "foreign organization" of sending "terrorist saboteurs with explosives across the border to perpetrate destructive acts inside the country." Many observers believe the "foreign organization" was a reference to the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
"They are not making this allegation lightly," said a well-informed source inside Burma. "No matter whether the allegation is true or not, it’s a well-calculated charge that is being interpreted within the military establishment in the context of U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman's recent call for the US to use its military capabilities in Burma."
The influential senator wrote an opinion piece in October 2007, suggesting the Bush administration should actively investigate US military and intelligence capabilities could be used to put additional pressure on the regime. Lieberman said, "We should be examining how the junta's ability to command and control its forces throughout the country might itself be disrupted."
But opposition groups and the media dismissed the accusation of a "foreign organization" involvement as a ridiculous charge. The KNU also denied carrying out any attacks targeting civilians.
The opposition speculated that the regime itself could be behind the bombings in the hope of raising a perception of threat against the military, offering an excuse to continue its crack down against known democracy activists and the KNU.
Some exiled Burmese analysts even point to bitter military intelligence members who were purged in 2004 for orchestrating the bombings. Theories abound.
Meanwhile, security has been increased in Rangoon, Pegu and other major cities. Local authorities in some cities even reportedly detained and questioned residents who had recently returned from Thailand after working there as migrants.
In fact, the bombings underscore the vulnerability of the junta's leadership, no matter the source.
Even if the regime uses the bombings as a justification to continue its crackdown against opposition groups, it underscores its fear of the opposition. If the bombings were self-inflicted and meant to shore up unity within the Tatmadaw (armed forces), it’s a sign the junta is unsure of the loyalty of officers and soldiers
"It is less likely that the junta orchestrated the recent explosions," said Win Min, a Burmese analyst who studies civil-military relations in Burma. "I don't think the military would stage an attack in Naypyidaw, the capital they extol and take pride in. In fact, it is not necessary for them to use bombings to justify their crackdowns on the oppositions."
In fact, since 1988 the military’s image, in the eyes of the domestic public as well as abroad, has descended to rock bottom, while the opposition, including the armed ethnic groups, is seen as democratic freedom fighters.
The September demonstrations again allowed Burmese society to witness mindless killing and brutality directed against Buddhist monks and civilians. As result, the morale of the military, including some senior officers, is at its lowest ebb in years.
Moreover, the generals have pushed the limit of the international community including their regional supporters.
Under the current circumstances, the last thing the generals want is to be seen as weak.
An unfortunate consequence of this deep sense of vulnerability is that it hardens Snr-Gen Than Shwe's thinking. Under the spell of a bunker mentality, the military leadership will continue to dig in their heels and new reforms are less likely.
Than Shwe's regime is now determined to entrench its power in non-negotiable terms.

Weekly Business Round-up

(January, 26, 2008)

By William Boot/ Bangkok January 26, 2008
Hundreds Face Eviction in Kachin State Over Chinese Dam
Burmese regime-friendly conglomerate Asia World is forcing many hundreds of villagers in northern Burma to abandon their homes and resettle elsewhere as it prepares to build a hydroelectric system at Chibwe on the May Kha River.
The project will force residents of the Washapa and Nyawngmawpa valleys to move, says a report by the Kachin News Group.
Asia World is a contractor for Chinese state companies developing the hydro scheme, which pump most of the ensuing electricity into China’s energy-hungry Yunnan province.
The KNG says Chinese engineers have already been seen in the area.
The Chibwe scheme will reportedly be big enough to have a generating capacity of 2,000 megawatts—more than Burma’s entire current output for domestic consumption.
But the Chibwe dam will by no means be the biggest hydroelectric project in Burma.
It is only one of several planned by China, via its state China Power Investment Corporation, with Burmese government support to develop electricity generation for Yunnan rather than equally energy-hungry Burma.
India, China Planning Transit Routes through Burma
India and China are pushing the ruling military junta to open up Burma with new road and rail routes.
However, the proposed west-east and south-north infrastructures may well be little more than transit routes to ferry essential supplies into China and to improve India’s trade with Southeast Asia, say analysts.
“Several Burmese state agencies are working with the Chinese on possible road and rail links from the planned deep sea port on the central Burmese coast at Kyauk Phyu,” said energy commodities consultant Collin Reynolds in Bangkok.
“These are seen as complimentary to an oil pipeline which is almost certain to be laid between the port and Kunming in China’s neighboring Yunnan province,” he said.
The oil will be transshipped from tankers docking at the port from the Middle East and northwest Africa where China is developing oil sources.
A pipeline will also run from the coast, around Sittwe, to move gas from the Shwe offshore field into Yunnan and beyond.
At the same time, India is using its increasing influence in Naypyidaw to persuade the Burmese generals to permit road and rail transit links into Southwest China and Southeast Asia generally.
The Times of India newspaper this week quoted Indian transport and commerce ministry officials saying Burma was essential for its ambitions to develop its sector of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for the Asia Pacific proposed Asian Highway.
Car Maker Skoda Eyes Burma
German-owned car maker Skoda has its sights on a Burma and several other potential new markets in its plans to establish a regional manufacturing base in India.
Skoda announced a program to produce up to 50,000 low-priced cars a year in India.
Officials of the Czech Republic-based manufacturer told India’s Economic Times it intended to move from a current small assembly operation to full local production by 2010.
In addition to the mushrooming Indian market, Skoda also planned to sell vehicles in Burma, Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
“We will be tapping the neighboring markets to sell our excess production,” Skoda marketing executive Thomas Kuehl told the newspaper.
Burma State Airline Plans New Service to India
Burma’s state national airline says it will introduce a new service to India, underlining growing relations between the Burmese military regime and its giant western neighbor.
Myanmar Airways International said the new service would begin later this year, but gave no timetable or destinations.
MAI resumed services to Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand earlier this month after suspending international flights for about three months for what the airline called “technical reasons.”
The suspension of flights followed an international outcry over the Burmese junta’s crackdown on unarmed demonstrators calling for social and economic reforms in the wake of rising fuel prices.
New Delhi has come under pressure from the United States, the European Union and other Western governments to use its influence to persuade the Burmese leaders to introduce democratic reforms.
But India, like China, considers engagement with Burma as the best way forward, not economic and political isolation. Many international air services with Burma were curbed after the military crackdown, in part because foreign tourists canceled travel plans.
But MAI says it now plans to expand. “More flights are being planned to new destinations within Asia,” said Managing Director Aung Gyi on the airline’s website.