Junta Pressures Ethnic Ceasefire Groups on China Border
By SAW YAN NAING
Friday, February 1, 2008.
Burma’s regime is stepping up its efforts to persuade armed ethnic groups to become more involved in its political reform program, even as it stalls in its talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Senior Burmese military leaders are pressuring ethnic ceasefire groups based along the border with China to disarm and support a national referendum, which is part of the regime’s seven-point “road map” to democracy.
Recently, two senior leaders of the ruling junta, Maj-Gen Khin Aung Myint, Minister for Culture, and Lt-Gen Ye Myint, head of Military Affairs Security, visited the Burma-China border, where they held talks with Wa, Kachin, Shan and Kokang armed insurgent groups, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese analyst based on the Chinese border.
Lt-Gen Ye Myint has been traveling around the area since January 24, meeting with leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Shan State Army (North) and the Kokang Army.
Aung Kyaw Zaw said that the Burmese side was careful not to state its demands too strongly, but was holding informal dinner receptions at which the Burmese generals indirectly asked ethnic leaders to disarm their armies and support the junta’s referendum.
The Burmese generals were trying to persuade leaders of the border-based ceasefire groups to form political parties so they could run in future general elections, said the Burmese analyst. But the regime didn’t say when elections would be held.
There was no official reply from the ceasefire groups, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw. Among the ceasefire groups, the UWSA is the strongest; it is believed to have more than 20,000 foot soldiers. There have been persistent reports coming out of the Wa hills suggesting that the Wa leadership may not accede to Rangoon’s request to disarm the UWSA.
Meanwhile, Maj-Gen Khin Aung Myint, who is also a leading member of the regime’s “Spokes Authoritative Team,” held a meeting with Kachin leaders from the KIO. This is his second trip in recent months.
Htay Aung, an exiled Burmese researcher on military affairs, said that Khin Aung Myint, who has served in the psychological warfare department, is knowledgeable about ethnic groups and may be able to persuade the armed groups to disarm.
The regime has officially announced that the first two stages of its “seven-step road map” have been completed, leaving only five more stages to go before the country makes its transition to a “disciplined democracy”.
The next step is the drafting of a new constitution, with subsequent steps including the holding of a referendum, formation of a people’s assembly, and general elections.
Maj Sai Lao Hseng, a spokesperson for the Shan State Army (South), which continues to engage in armed conflict with the regime, said that he believed the regime would continue to push the armed groups to disarm and support a new constitution and referendum.
However, Sai Lao Hseng added that several ceasefire group leaders might reject the junta’s requests to disarm. A number of ceasefire groups have attended the regime’s National Convention, which first convened in 1993.
By SAW YAN NAING
Friday, February 1, 2008.
Burma’s regime is stepping up its efforts to persuade armed ethnic groups to become more involved in its political reform program, even as it stalls in its talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Senior Burmese military leaders are pressuring ethnic ceasefire groups based along the border with China to disarm and support a national referendum, which is part of the regime’s seven-point “road map” to democracy.
Recently, two senior leaders of the ruling junta, Maj-Gen Khin Aung Myint, Minister for Culture, and Lt-Gen Ye Myint, head of Military Affairs Security, visited the Burma-China border, where they held talks with Wa, Kachin, Shan and Kokang armed insurgent groups, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese analyst based on the Chinese border.
Lt-Gen Ye Myint has been traveling around the area since January 24, meeting with leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Shan State Army (North) and the Kokang Army.
Aung Kyaw Zaw said that the Burmese side was careful not to state its demands too strongly, but was holding informal dinner receptions at which the Burmese generals indirectly asked ethnic leaders to disarm their armies and support the junta’s referendum.
The Burmese generals were trying to persuade leaders of the border-based ceasefire groups to form political parties so they could run in future general elections, said the Burmese analyst. But the regime didn’t say when elections would be held.
There was no official reply from the ceasefire groups, according to Aung Kyaw Zaw. Among the ceasefire groups, the UWSA is the strongest; it is believed to have more than 20,000 foot soldiers. There have been persistent reports coming out of the Wa hills suggesting that the Wa leadership may not accede to Rangoon’s request to disarm the UWSA.
Meanwhile, Maj-Gen Khin Aung Myint, who is also a leading member of the regime’s “Spokes Authoritative Team,” held a meeting with Kachin leaders from the KIO. This is his second trip in recent months.
Htay Aung, an exiled Burmese researcher on military affairs, said that Khin Aung Myint, who has served in the psychological warfare department, is knowledgeable about ethnic groups and may be able to persuade the armed groups to disarm.
The regime has officially announced that the first two stages of its “seven-step road map” have been completed, leaving only five more stages to go before the country makes its transition to a “disciplined democracy”.
The next step is the drafting of a new constitution, with subsequent steps including the holding of a referendum, formation of a people’s assembly, and general elections.
Maj Sai Lao Hseng, a spokesperson for the Shan State Army (South), which continues to engage in armed conflict with the regime, said that he believed the regime would continue to push the armed groups to disarm and support a new constitution and referendum.
However, Sai Lao Hseng added that several ceasefire group leaders might reject the junta’s requests to disarm. A number of ceasefire groups have attended the regime’s National Convention, which first convened in 1993.
Think Tank Releases Recommendations on Burma
By WAI MOE
Friday, February 1, 2008.
Change will only come to Burma if influential groups in the West and Asia work closely together, according to a study released by The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank.
The report, “Burma /Myanmar: After the Crackdown,” released on January 31, suggests three elements must work in tandem, John Virgoe, ICG’s Southeast Asia director, told The Irrawaddy on Friday.
The elements include the United Nations and UN Special Envoy to Burma Ibrahim Gambari; multi-party talks with China, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean); and the international community, particularly Western democracies and Japan, all of whom must work together and keep the Burmese junta at the top of the international agenda.
The junta’s crackdown last year caused even Burma’s allies to recognize that change is desperately needed, according to the ICG report, which wrote:
“The military government’s response to the growing international pressure has been limited. While neither request nor threats deterred the generals from crushing the protest movement, they have tried to manage the fallout by engaging with Gambari and have taken a number of steps, in line with his requests, to ‘normalise’ the situation on the ground.”
On the pro-democracy opposition movement, the ICG said it lacks the power to challenge the military rulers, and a decisive battleground for meaningful change is more likely to exist within the elite political framework than in the streets.
The Burmese people remain committed to achieve change, and new opportunities may emerge during a gradual transition which sees the replacement of overt military rule by some sort of hybrid regime, the report suggests.
The group said targeted sanctions can be an important tool in support of diplomacy and increasing focus on sanctions is a positive.
Targeted sanctions should be gradually focused on restricting access of military, state and crony business enterprises to international banking services, including the holding of foreign bank accounts and the use of the Belgian-based SWIFT system for bank transfers. In addition, sanctions should include limiting the access of selected generals and their immediate families to personal business opportunities, heath care, shopping and foreign education for their children, including in regional countries, the report said.
“Arms embargoes, while general in nature, have elements of targeting too and should be pursued,” said ICG.
Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese analyst in Thailand, said he was disappointed with the ICG report because the report only focused on outside players. The main participants to effect the process of change are inside Burma, he said. The report made no recommendations regarding the regime and in-country opposition groups.
“ICG suggested the regional countries should be more involved in the Burma issue,” he said. “But the military junta does not care about pressure (from regional countries),” said Aung Naing Oo.
Some critics said the current ICG report has altered its stance toward Burma following the September crisis. In previous reports, the ICG took a less positive view on Western sanctions, and it supported engagement with the regime, some critics said.
Virgoe said the ICG has not changed its stand on Burma. He said that after the September crackdown, the international community has found more common ground on Burma than in the past.
“Previously I think there were really different opinions between Asean on the one hand and the West on the other hand,” he said. “But now there is more common ground. I think everybody, every country, recognizes that Burma is a serious problem—that change is needed in Burma.”
By WAI MOE
Friday, February 1, 2008.
Change will only come to Burma if influential groups in the West and Asia work closely together, according to a study released by The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think tank.
The report, “Burma /Myanmar: After the Crackdown,” released on January 31, suggests three elements must work in tandem, John Virgoe, ICG’s Southeast Asia director, told The Irrawaddy on Friday.
The elements include the United Nations and UN Special Envoy to Burma Ibrahim Gambari; multi-party talks with China, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean); and the international community, particularly Western democracies and Japan, all of whom must work together and keep the Burmese junta at the top of the international agenda.
The junta’s crackdown last year caused even Burma’s allies to recognize that change is desperately needed, according to the ICG report, which wrote:
“The military government’s response to the growing international pressure has been limited. While neither request nor threats deterred the generals from crushing the protest movement, they have tried to manage the fallout by engaging with Gambari and have taken a number of steps, in line with his requests, to ‘normalise’ the situation on the ground.”
On the pro-democracy opposition movement, the ICG said it lacks the power to challenge the military rulers, and a decisive battleground for meaningful change is more likely to exist within the elite political framework than in the streets.
The Burmese people remain committed to achieve change, and new opportunities may emerge during a gradual transition which sees the replacement of overt military rule by some sort of hybrid regime, the report suggests.
The group said targeted sanctions can be an important tool in support of diplomacy and increasing focus on sanctions is a positive.
Targeted sanctions should be gradually focused on restricting access of military, state and crony business enterprises to international banking services, including the holding of foreign bank accounts and the use of the Belgian-based SWIFT system for bank transfers. In addition, sanctions should include limiting the access of selected generals and their immediate families to personal business opportunities, heath care, shopping and foreign education for their children, including in regional countries, the report said.
“Arms embargoes, while general in nature, have elements of targeting too and should be pursued,” said ICG.
Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese analyst in Thailand, said he was disappointed with the ICG report because the report only focused on outside players. The main participants to effect the process of change are inside Burma, he said. The report made no recommendations regarding the regime and in-country opposition groups.
“ICG suggested the regional countries should be more involved in the Burma issue,” he said. “But the military junta does not care about pressure (from regional countries),” said Aung Naing Oo.
Some critics said the current ICG report has altered its stance toward Burma following the September crisis. In previous reports, the ICG took a less positive view on Western sanctions, and it supported engagement with the regime, some critics said.
Virgoe said the ICG has not changed its stand on Burma. He said that after the September crackdown, the international community has found more common ground on Burma than in the past.
“Previously I think there were really different opinions between Asean on the one hand and the West on the other hand,” he said. “But now there is more common ground. I think everybody, every country, recognizes that Burma is a serious problem—that change is needed in Burma.”
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