Solution to Burma Crisis Uncertain in 2008
By Wai Moe December 28, 2007
The Burmese oppositions’ prospects of dialogue with the military government remain unlikely in the near future while the junta pushes ahead with its seven-step “Roadmap.” However, astrologists say 2008 will bring change to Burma.
Analysts say the ruling generals’ despicable acts of brutality against the country’s most respected Buddhist institution, the Sangha, will make the national reconciliation process between Burmese citizens and the junta more difficult.
Although the international community, led by the UN, has repeatedly called for dialogue to resolve the crisis in Burma, there is little light at the end of the tunnel in 2008, said Aye Thar Aung, secretary of the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament.
“The junta’s claims are likely to be false. They made conditions for dialogue; now there are no signs of an ongoing dialogue,” he added.
Nyan Win, a spokesperson for the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that dialogue will be the “main step” of the NLD in 2008.
“We cannot say with certainty that there will be constructive meetings between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the liaison officer, Maj-Gen Aung Kyi, in 2008,” he said. “We have not seen any improvement since November 19 (Suu Kyi and Aung Kyi’s last meeting). We expect a lot from dialogue. But that hope is still hopeless.”
Nyan Win also said that the international community’s endorsement of Burmese democracy will still be an important factor in the future.
Chan Tun, a veteran politician based in Rangoon, said he believes that students, monks, dissidents and ordinary people who want a peaceful transition in Burma will continue calling for dialogue in 2008.
The generals will focus on finishing their one-dimensional constitution; then they will go along with a referendum and an election, said Chan Tun. “But, if the junta wants a legitimate constitution, referendum and election, they all must be free and fair. International observers must be invited.”
The Burmese junta, through its State Peace and Development Council, characterized its hardline stance in a list of objectives released to the state-run media on Friday to mark the 60th anniversary of Burma’s independence. Two of the five objectives read: “To ensure emergence of an enduring constitution in line with the fundamental principle and detailed basic principles adopted by the National Convention that has been completed successfully;” and “All the national people to cooperate in realizing the state’s seven-step roadmap with union spirit, patriotic spirit and the spirit of sacrifice.” [sic]
However, whatever the ruling generals say, ordinary people think differently. The New Year period is a time to consult with astrologists and the streets are awash with predictions of change in 2008.
One well-known astrologist warned of a bloody situation in the first quarter of the new year. And Than Shwe’s life will apparently be in danger if the new national flag is officially approved, said Rangoon residents.
Astrologists have told believers to be careful when leaving home, because the incidents in the future will be historical and bloody before change comes to Burma.
“We heard similar warnings by astrologists in 1988,” said a believer, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But later we witnessed people’s blood on the streets. Astrologists are warning again now.”
The Burmese oppositions’ prospects of dialogue with the military government remain unlikely in the near future while the junta pushes ahead with its seven-step “Roadmap.” However, astrologists say 2008 will bring change to Burma.
Analysts say the ruling generals’ despicable acts of brutality against the country’s most respected Buddhist institution, the Sangha, will make the national reconciliation process between Burmese citizens and the junta more difficult.
Although the international community, led by the UN, has repeatedly called for dialogue to resolve the crisis in Burma, there is little light at the end of the tunnel in 2008, said Aye Thar Aung, secretary of the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament.
“The junta’s claims are likely to be false. They made conditions for dialogue; now there are no signs of an ongoing dialogue,” he added.
Nyan Win, a spokesperson for the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that dialogue will be the “main step” of the NLD in 2008.
“We cannot say with certainty that there will be constructive meetings between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the liaison officer, Maj-Gen Aung Kyi, in 2008,” he said. “We have not seen any improvement since November 19 (Suu Kyi and Aung Kyi’s last meeting). We expect a lot from dialogue. But that hope is still hopeless.”
Nyan Win also said that the international community’s endorsement of Burmese democracy will still be an important factor in the future.
Chan Tun, a veteran politician based in Rangoon, said he believes that students, monks, dissidents and ordinary people who want a peaceful transition in Burma will continue calling for dialogue in 2008.
The generals will focus on finishing their one-dimensional constitution; then they will go along with a referendum and an election, said Chan Tun. “But, if the junta wants a legitimate constitution, referendum and election, they all must be free and fair. International observers must be invited.”
The Burmese junta, through its State Peace and Development Council, characterized its hardline stance in a list of objectives released to the state-run media on Friday to mark the 60th anniversary of Burma’s independence. Two of the five objectives read: “To ensure emergence of an enduring constitution in line with the fundamental principle and detailed basic principles adopted by the National Convention that has been completed successfully;” and “All the national people to cooperate in realizing the state’s seven-step roadmap with union spirit, patriotic spirit and the spirit of sacrifice.” [sic]
However, whatever the ruling generals say, ordinary people think differently. The New Year period is a time to consult with astrologists and the streets are awash with predictions of change in 2008.
One well-known astrologist warned of a bloody situation in the first quarter of the new year. And Than Shwe’s life will apparently be in danger if the new national flag is officially approved, said Rangoon residents.
Astrologists have told believers to be careful when leaving home, because the incidents in the future will be historical and bloody before change comes to Burma.
“We heard similar warnings by astrologists in 1988,” said a believer, speaking on condition of anonymity. “But later we witnessed people’s blood on the streets. Astrologists are warning again now.”
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