CPTC2

Burma Faces More of the Same in 2008
By Aung Zaw January 9, 2008

Less than four months after the shattering events of September, news about Burma is now a scarcity and has almost disappeared from the radar screen. The regime's tight control over the country has increased in that time, and a quiet crackdown on dissidents has continued.
The regime's attempt to restore "normalcy" may be working as many dissidents have been locked up and Buddhist monks have deserted Burma's temples and monasteries.
In this on-going stalemate, a combination of deep depression, despair and fear continues to grip the country.
News from Iraq, Kenya, Pakistan, Afghanistan and now the American pre-election primaries has taken over the headlines, and developments in Burma are given little attention.
Nevertheless, as the year 2008 gets under way, the desire among Burma’s international friends to see change there is as strong as ever.
These friends keep advocating Burma's cause and maintain the spotlight on Burma. They are as determined as Burma's undefeated souls to keep the Burma issue alive.
On the 60th anniversary this month of Burma's independence, US first lady Laura Bush again strongly criticized the country’s military leadership, saying "instead of celebrating their freedom, the Burmese people live in fear, poverty and oppression under General Than Shwe and his military regime."
She also said that the US stands united behind detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and "all those working to make sure that by the next January 4 the people of Burma will celebrate real independence."
Britain's Foreign Secretary, David Miliband who has written several commentaries on Burma since September’s uprising, also issued a statement saying that the Burmese people's aspirations for democracy, stability and prosperity have been frustrated.
Meanwhile, the European Union's special envoy for Burma, Piero Fassino, said that efforts to promote democracy in Burma must remain a priority for the international community.
Piero Fassino, who made a tour of the region and met Chinese officials in Beijing, said: "We want to keep Myanmar [Burma] at the top of the international community's agenda."
He also held talks with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari. Fassino said they found common ground, particularly on the need to enlist the support of all key Asian countries for diplomatic pressure to secure a political dialogue between the Burmese regime and the country's opposition.
The regime is not interested in dialogue, however. The appointment late last year of a liaison minister between the regime and Suu Kyi was just an attempt to deflect growing international criticism. The junta "fails to show any interest in talks" with Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit said in its recent annual report.
Frustration and disappointment have also been felt in the region.
As Indonesia prepared to welcome Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein to Jakarta next week, Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said that while “some countries in the region choose to be indifferent…we can’t afford to ignore this problem.”
The Indonesian Foreign Minister said his government wanted to see “a more credible process in the implementation of their [the Burmese junta’s] road map to democracy.”
Singapore's elder statesman Lee Kuan Yew has also criticized the military junta, saying Burma’s ruling generals were "people with very fixated minds, quite convinced that they will have the natural resources to weather any sanctions."
Lee, who famously said the regime leaders were rather dumb in handling the Burmese economy, also drew attention to the role other countries in the region could play in persuading the junta to embrace democracy.
"The members of Asean who could influence them [the generals] will be Thailand, and beyond [that] China and India. The rest of us—we are a kind of background muzak," he said, using slang for elevator music.
China, Thailand and India are major trading partners of the regime, and Beijing has been a leading supplier of arms. Singapore diplomats and officials have been quietly criticizing the Burma policy of Thailand, which is eager to purchase gas and natural resources from the regime.
Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told visiting Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win that it had become increasingly urgent to bring about "political reform and national reconciliation" in Burma.
The regime is likely this year to face more diplomatic pressure from the region and in the wider world. Dissidents in exile also predict that more street protests similar to those of last September are likely to take place, leading to social unrest and instability.
It seems, however, that Snr-Gen Than Shwe and other leaders are prepared to resist any pressure from inside or outside the country. Than Shwe's recent Independence Day speech contained nothing new, while indicating that the regime's "road map" will not be inclusive and that the indefinite power of the military will be maintained.
In his speech, Than Shwe said the “road map” would guarantee a "discipline-flourishing democratic state."
More political gambits with the UN, in order to appease powerful neighbors like China, are to be expected from the former psychological warfare officer, implying that Gambari may soon go back to Burma.
Gambari's mission has been supported by western and regional governments, although his efforts to bring about political dialogue and national reconciliation have so far proved to be futile. Burmese at home and abroad have been increasingly critical of Gambari's work, which has been ridiculed by the Burmese public—the Nigerian diplomat has even been a figure of fun in the popular traditional comedy shows.
A western observer and a businessman with keen interest in Burma recently said that there is no question of the good intentions of the US, the EU, American first lady Laura Bush and some regional leaders—but he added: "It is also disgusting to see them back Gambari, who hasn’t a clue about Burma." All the words and statements uttered about Burma should be turned into action, he said.
The year 2007 ended with a bloody crackdown and deep depression. Independence Day at the start of 2008 marked only Burma’s recolonization by homegrown dictators—and prospects for the rest of the year remain bleak.